The Case For Jose?

Throughout the course of a baseball season several story lines pop up for us, the fan, to follow. This seasons strongest storyline has been the impending free agency of Albert Pujols.  "The 30 Million Dollar Man" many say.  But as this season has progressed I think another impending free agent has been overlooked until now. Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop is having an MVP season so far hitting .341 with 12 Triples, 54 runs, 103 hits and 26 steals. That roughly sets him on a pace to have 24 Triples, over 200 hits and 100 runs and about 50 steals.  It's an amazing year thus far, but where does a season like that put this 28 year old lead-off guy in the free agent discussion. There have been several thoughts on this over the past few weeks, I'm going to take them all.  Jay in Philly (yes our Jay) and every other fan of a team seems to think he would be the perfect fit for there squad.  Well DUH, but at what price?  The Phils have money, but how much are they willing to spend on Reyes?  Is Reyes a $20 million dollar a year player? I had a conversation with my Riot! consultant yesterday (Ant) and he seems to think based on the standard of Major League shortstops he is very much worth $20 mil a year.  Slow Down, slow down; what? Let's take a Mets fan's look at Jose Reyes.  When Reyes came up in 2003, he was highly touted as the Mets future.  But after a start and stop beginning, we were left mostly frustrated and feeling robbed; as per the usual with a Mets prospect (look up Generation K when you have a minute and you'll get it). But eventually after two season that saw Reyes either nursing injuries or having to go back to the minors to work on a few things, Reyes became one of the cornerstones of a Mets championship contender for 3 or 4 years. Those seasons, Reyes averaged .290 with 65 steals, 15 triples, 30 doubles and 190 hits; three of these seasons he led the league in triples and stolen bases and led the Mets to the playoffs once in that stretch. Now those are great numbers, but are they $20 million a year numbers? The top 3 shortstops in baseball, salary wise, right now are Derek Jeter @ $17 mil, Troy Tulowitzki @ $15 mil, Hanley Ramirez @ $11.5 mil.  Let's remove Jeter from this conversation because he's a future Hall of Famer first off, and secondly he gets Yankee money which unevens the playing field.  So it's Troy and Hanley. 

*Troy Tulowitzki - With a different skill set, Troy averages .289, 27 HR's and 100 RBI, granted it's at Coor's Field, but it's still great for a shortstop.  He lacks the lead-off ability of a Reyes, but he is a run producer all the same. Oh, he averages 102 runs scored per season as well.
*Hanley Ramirez - Now Hanley is having a tough season down in Florida right now (.201, 4 HR, 17 RBI with 21 steals) but his season averages to this date are impressive (.306. 25 HR's, 81 RBI, with 41 steals and 118 runs scored).

So here's the point in the numbers, I would say with Troy's slight inflation of numbers from playing in Denver and Hanley's slight decrease in numbers due to playing in a crap line-up and a cavernous field in Miami, that Hanley is slightly better than Troy. Now let's bring it back to our potential $20 million dollar man here.  I would say that these 2 players are at least equal to Reyes because they have a different skill set, but they are run producers all the same.  So with Troy Tulowitzki being the high man here at $15 million per year, I would say that's where the standard should be set for Reyes from a money perspective. But what about your emotional bank account?  C'mon fans, I know it sounds girly but you know what I'm talking about.  Doesn't it seem odd to anyone but me, and the rest of us residing in Flushing, that Reyes seems to be totally healthy and performing on an MVP level for the first time in 3 years, on the year his contract is up? His last good year was in 2008 before the injuries happened.  Now I'm not saying he was faking injuries, or even that it wasn't necessarily serious enough to keep him out most of '09, but it appeared that in 2010 it was one nagging injury after another.  He played through a bunch, but it's just a sign that when Reyes's legs aren't right, it's bad news and that Reyes may lack some heart. You know, the fire you want to see out of a potential $20 mil per year guy.  So that contributes to the emotional withdrawal that happens when you have a Reyes on your team.  Others have said that Jose is reaching his potential now and this is what he will be.  I'm not sold on that.  As a Mets fan I have seen the best and the worst of Jose.  I live out in the Bay Area of San Francisco now, and the Giants fans are totally torn about Jose Reyes.  They have spent weeks talking about a possible trade deadline deal for him in July in the papers and on the radio.  True this current Reyes will be a tremendous fit on a Giants squad that can't hit ever since Posey went down.  But Giants fans I warn you, you will rip your hair out when Reyes comes up in a big spot.  He is not clutch at all.  He doesn't steal in big spots. He swings and pops up first pitches in late and tight situations with men on more than anyone other than Carlos Beltran who is another story for another day. And forget about counting on him to start a 9th inning rally; I have died many times on that mountain, he will inevitably swing at some shit in the dirt. He is not the guy you want to cure your ills. So here's what I will say about Jose Reyes to sum up.  I know I've been harsh, and maybe I have even thrown in some of my Mets fan angst because he is leaving us.  I mean, who would want to stay with any organization that fell for that Madoff shit.  Right this second he is playing for the worst, and dumbest owner in all of baseball.  Shit the Dodgers situation even looks better at this point. So i think Jose has seen enough to know it's time to jump ship.  Unfortunately, I'm a glutton for punishment, so I stick, and I'm not even getting paid. So my harshness may be a tad misplaced but let me say this, he is not a trade deadline guy.  Don't make the mistake of trading for him and thinking he's going to come in a win for you.  He's not that player. Reyes is a great player, I would love to have him back as a Mets fan.  But $20 million per year? I don't know.  I'm not sure anyone is worth that?  I'm still shocked from when AROD got that the first time.  So with that being said, let me say by shortstop standards, Reyes shouldn't get $20 mil, but by recent market standards maybe?  Look, i know I'm being a little "split personality" here, but I'm a fan who REALLY doesn't want to lose my player.  A system guy, home grown and the whole thing, but Carl Crawford brought in $20 million per year when he signed with the Red Sox in the off-season. Now is Red Sox money the same as Yankee money these days?  I don't know, but it's worth a comparison. Average Seasons:

*Carl Crawford .294, 14 HR's, 78 RBI, 52 SB, 192 H, 14 Tpls, 28 dbs and a .334 on-base percentage.
*Jose Reyes .290, 13 HR's, 67 RBI, 58 SB, 199 H, 15 tpls, 34 dbls and a .339 on-base percentage.

Those look like very comparable numbers.  So according to the MLB market, maybe Reyes is a $20 million dollar man? I don't know, Rioters! make the call.