Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Let The Trade Winds Blow

The July 31st trading deadline is swiftly approaching and a lot of players will be wearing new uniforms come August 1st.  It’s already kicked off with the Mets shipping Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers and last Jeff Keppinger going to the Giants; this is just the tip of the iceberg.  Let’s look at some possible trade candidates and where they might finish the season.

Carlos Beltran – OF, New York Mets
With Beltran having a strong offensive season in the final year of his contract he’s a prime target for a playoff team looking for offense.  The fact that he’s a switch hitter makes him a perfect fit for the Giants, Red Sox or Phillies.

The one concern about Beltran is that he does have a no-trade clause and although rumors are he’d be willing to waive it if he was traded to a contender, there’s no guarantee he will waive it. 

The Mets would most likely like to unload Carlos, but they will be asking for a lot in return.  The Phillies probably don’t have the prospects to land a bat of Beltran’s caliber and rumors in Philadelphia are if they were to make a deal they’d want to make sure the player would be under team control for more than the rest of the season; so I think they’re out.  The best fit would be the Giants, who really could use a boost in their outfield with the likes of Pat Burrell struggling, but it’s unknown if Beltran would want to go to the West Coast.

PREDICTION:  Beltran will be dealt to the Giants

Heath Bell – RP, San Diego Padres
Bell is having another fine season and continues to show why he’s the best closer in baseball and he’s also a free agent at seasons end.  The Phillies, Rangers, Yankees and Cardinals could use some bullpen help down the stretch and the Padres have been scouting all these teams farm systems.

The Yankees greater need is starting pitching, so that might be a bigger focus for them and I’m not sure the Phillies will want to part with what the Padres want for a half-season rental.  The Cardinals and the Rangers are probably the best fit right now and will most likely be the most aggressive.

PREDICTION:  Bell will be dealt to the Cardinals

Ubaldo Jiminez, SP, Colorado Rockies
Rumors have recently surfaced on the availability of Jimenez, and there’s a good shot he will be dealt if the price is right.  While he has struggled this season he’s only one year removed from winning 19 games and finishing third in the Cy-Young voting, so he’s definitely a good gamble for a team.

He’s also under team control until 2014, so he can be kept at a low price for a few more seasons which helps smaller market teams.  Its unknown what the asking price would be but I’d assume he won’t come cheap given his prior track record and low salary.

He’s ideal for the Yankees or Red Sox who have had suffered some injuries to their starting rotation.  I can also see the resurgent Pirates getting in on Jimenez given the fact he’s under team control for a few more seasons, and has a low salary.  Plus the Bucs making a deadline move would really jolt the fan base.

PREDICTION:  Jimenez will be dealt to the Pirates

Mike Adams – RP, San Diego Padres
The Padres set up man has been a flat out stud over the past four seasons.  If available, there will be a lot of teams in on him.  You can never have too much pitching, especially in the playoffs he’s a perfect fit for the Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Angels, and Cardinals.

He’s also under team control until 2013, which makes him very attractive to all of the above teams, but also could be a reason that the Padres don’t move him.  Should Bell get traded it makes sense that Adams would moved into the closers role.

PREDCITION:  Adams will not be traded and remain with the Padres

Jeremy Guthrie – SP, Baltimore Orioles
Despite a terrible record over the past three seasons, Guthrie’s numbers are deceptive.  He’s been a victim of a terrible Orioles offense.  Orioles GM has said Guthrie would be available for young pitching (what the Orioles need is another young pitcher), so he’s definitely on the market.  Based on him being under team control until 2013 and having a low salary he’s an attractive pitcher for a lot of teams.

The Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Indians (Guthrie’s former team), and Cardinals would all be in on Guthrie.   I’d have to give the Cardinals, Angels, or Indians here mainly because I’m not sure the Orioles would trade Guthrie within the division. I really like the Cardinals here because Guthrie is a perfect pitcher to work with Dave Duncan.

PREDICITON:  Guthrie will be dealt to the Cardinals

Josh Willingham – OF, Oakland Athletics
Willingham isn’t having exactly a stellar season, but he’s a decent right handed bat off the bench who can help a team down the stretch.  He’s also a free agent at seasons end and can be had relatively cheap.

I can’t see him being an everyday player but he would be able to contribute as a platoon player or a bat off the bench making him a better fit in the National League.  The Phillies, Giants, Pirates, Brewers, and Braves are all good fits.

PREDICTION:  Willingham will be dealt to the Braves

Koji Uehara – RP, Baltimore Orioles
Uehara has been the Orioles most reliable reliever over the past two seasons.  He’s under team control until 2015 via arbitration.  His salary is relatively low and most likely can be pried away from Baltimore fairly easily.

The Braves, Cardinals, Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, Indians, Brewers, Phillies, Pirates, and Tigers would all be in on the durable lefty.  Similar to Guthrie it might not be likely he will be traded within the division so it might be a litter tougher for the Yankees and Red Sox.

PREDICTION:  Uehara will be dealt to the Phillies

Carlos Pena – 1B, Chicago Cubs
I haven’t heard many rumors relating to Pena, but the fact that he’s a free agent at the end of the year and the Cubs are junk, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him dealt.  He’s had struggles at the plate and strikes out a ton, but he has a ton of power and isn’t afraid to take a walk.

Most of the contenders don’t need a first baseman, but he would suit well as a lefty bat off the bench and some possible DH work.  The Indians and Yankees seem like the obvious choice, with the Yankees having the edge.  Similar to acquiring Lance Berkman last season, this is a perfect deal for the Bronx Bombers.

PREDICTION:  Pena will be dealt to the Yankees

Ryan Ludwick – OF, San Diego Padres
There will be a fire sale in San Diego and Ludwick is a prime target for teams looking for a right handed bat down the stretch.  He’s not the player he was when he was with the Cardinals when he hit 37 home runs and driving in 113, but he’s still a serviceable platoon guy.

He’d be a great fit on the Red Sox, Phillies, Braves, Yankees, Indians, Pirates, and Giants (should they miss out on Beltran).

PREDICITON:  Ludwick will be dealt to the Indians


Derrek Lee – 1B, Baltimore Orioles
In signing with Baltimore this past offseason Lee was hoping he would rebound from a sub-par season in 2010.  Well the exact opposite happened, has he’s been terrible this year in Baltimore. 

I’m not sure if there is any interest for him on the market and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him traded after the 31st because he will definitely clear waivers.  If a team were to trade for him he’s strictly be a pinch hitter.  On the positive note for perspective teams, he should be able to be acquired for a bag of balls and a clubhouse attendant.

The Pirates might be the best fit because he could give a young team some veteran leadership.  Otherwise, I can see the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, or Giants possibly kicking the tires on Lee, but it’s no guarantee.

PREDICTION:  Lee will be dealt to the Pirates

Carlos Lee – OF, Houston Astros
This might be a bit of a stretch, but it’s no secret the Astros would like to unload Lee.  Lee is arguably having the worst season of his career up to now, but he’s a solid second half player.

He’s not a free agent until after the 2012 season, so any team will have him for another season.  Unfortunately he’s owed $18.5 million next season, so that’s a hefty salary for an aging outfielder.

I can possibly see him as a good fit with the Angels or possibly the Tigers.  The only way Lee will be dealt is if Houston is willing to eat a good chunk of his salary so it might be a tough deal to work out.

PREDICTION:  Lee will not be traded and remain with the Astros

Erik Bedard – SP, Seattle Mariners
Talent has never been a question when it comes to Bedard.  He’s a talented pitcher.  Unfortunately he’s more fragile then a Faberge egg.  He’s a free agent at seasons end, and could be had at a basement price.

Even though his health is a big question, I could see teams taking a flyer on him down the stretch.  The Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, and Phillies have had some rotation injuries and could definitely add depth (providing he stays healthy himself).

PREDICTION:  Bedard will be dealt to the Yankees

Jonathon Broxton – RP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Once a dominant closer, Broxton’s 2011 season has been a complete abortion.  The talent is still there and a change of scenery might be what he needs.  He’s also a free agent after the season so there’s no commitment should he continue to struggle.

The big question mark with Broxton is his health.  He’s currently on the disabled list with elbow issues.  If he’s not healthy by the 31st there’s a good shot he’ll clear waivers.  Providing he’s healthy the Indians, Tigers, Cardinals, Angels, Rangers, Yankees, and Red Sox would all be in on him.

PREDICTION:  Broxton will be traded to the Tigers

Melky Cabrera – OF, Kansas City Royals
Cabrera is having a career year for the forever slumping Royals.  He’s a switching hitting outfielder with speed and excellent defense.  He’s under team control until 2013, so he’s an attractive option for any contender.  Given these facts and the fact Cabrera is becoming a popular player in Kansas City, there’s no guarantee he’ll be traded and if he is the asking price might be a bit high.

The Angels, Phillies, Red Sox, Braves, Cardinals, Indians, and Pirates will all be in on Cabrera as he’s one of the more attractive yet under the radar outfielders that will be available.

PREDICTION:  Cabrera will be dealt to the Phillies

Jeff Francoeur – OF, Kansas City Royals
If the Royals do trade an outfielder it’s more likely they will trade Francoeur.  Francoeur is having a season similar to Willingham and Ludwick.  What makes him more attractive is he has one of the best arms in baseball, so he’s also a good defensive replacement.

The Red Sox, Phillies, and Tigers are logical destinations for Francoeur.

PREDICTION:  Francoeur will be dealt to the Phillies (should they miss out on Cabrera, otherwise the Tigers.

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