Thursday, October 6, 2011

Jay's NHL Preview - Western Conference

Well I’ve already previewed the Eastern Conference of the 2011-2012 NHL season.  Now it’s time we head out west and take a look at the Western Conference.

CENTRAL DIVISION

Chicago Blackhawks - The Blackhawks are looking to rebound from last seasons Stanley Cup hangover and made some offseason moves that will help them get back into contention.  The additions of Steve Montador improves the defense and the signing of Sean O’Donnell (who’s still looking to prove he has one season left), add depth to a core that already boasts Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook.  Offensively the addition of Andrew Brunette give the Hawks an additional sniper to play along with Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews.  Another thing I like about the offense is the depth.  Michael Frolik, Marian Hossa, and Patrick Sharp are consistent.  In goal is Cory Crawford.  He’s young but made Chicagoans believe last season that he’s the real deal. 

The Blue Jackets made a big splash this offseason acquiring sniper Jeff Carter from the Flyers.  Pairing him with forward Rick Nash the two of them should easily eclipse 75 goals combine, but that still isn’t going to be enough.  The injury to Kristian Huselius will definitely hurt the offense but the signing on Vaclav Prospal should replace him on the first line and make up for some of the offense lost.  Fourth overall pick, Ryan Johansen has made the team and will be centering the Blue Jackets second line.  It’s a bit bold for a rookie to immediately be thrown into the second line but the Jackets need the offensive help.  Defensively I like the addition of James Wisniewski and although he’s missing the first eight games of the season, due to the wrath of Brendan Shannahan, but that shouldn’t impact his season too much.  Goalie Chris Mason doesn’t exactly “wow” me, but the Jackets management has had enough faith in him to not acquire a new goalie in the offseason and instead focusing on improving the offense with the additions of Carter and Wisniewski.

St. Louis is in a rebuilding mode but I think they are heading in the right direction.  They didn’t lose much in the offseason and added some veteran presence with Jason Arnott and Jamie Langenbrunner.  Arnott in particular should help the young Patrik Berglund.  The first line of David Backe, Andy McDonald, and Chris Stewart is good, but in comparison to the rest of the division it’s not too impressive.  Alex Pietrangelo is a good young defenseman and has the potential to be one of the league’s best.  Kevin Shattenkirk had an impressive rookie season and he should build upon that.  I figure him to be a fixture on the Blues power play.  Jaroslav Halak had a good season between the pipes last year but faded down the stretch.  Hopefully his stamina is better this season because his backup, Brian Elliott, is nothing to write home about.  It hurts the Blues that they are in one of the most competitive divisions in the NHL.

There’s some reason to be excited in Nashville and not just because you might run into John Rich on Music Row.  The Predators have a good young team, with a very deep farm system, that is looking to build on their playoff success last season.  Prospect Ryan Ellis will probably not start the season with the Preds, but before the end of the season he should be with the big club.  First line center Mike Fisher will miss the beginning on the season due to injury, but it shouldn’t impact the team too much.  Martin Erat will again be able to put up between 40-60 points this season and I like for Sergei Kostitslyn to build on his 50 point total last season and lead the team in scoring.  On the defensive end Nashville is among the league’s elite.  Shea Weber is the one of the best defenseman in the NHL and an early favorite to win the Norris Trophy.    He along with Ryan Suter will lead a young defense and mentor Jonathon Blum, who has a world of talent.  Pekka Rinne, the netminder, is one of the best young goalies in the NHL and will be in Vezina Trophy talks as the season progresses.

They call it Hockeytown for a reason and like every other season over the past 15 years, Detroit is a contender.  Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg will continue to lead a veteran offense that can find the back of the net.  Daniel Cleary isn’t going to blow you away but he’s consistent.  Keep an eye on Valtteri Filpulla as he’s the next Red Wing destined for stardom.  The ageless Nicklas Lidstrom will continue to lead the defense in his final NHL season.  The retirement on Brian Rafalski will hurt the defense a bit but its up to Niklas Kronwell to fill his shoes.  Mike Commadore is a solid veteran but Ian White and Johan Ericsson will need to take their game to the next level.  I’m not a big Jimmy Howard fan, but the signing of Ty Conklin gives the Red Wings a solid backup goaltender.  Detroit isn’t getting any younger and they might have slipped a bit, but it is the Red Wings and they find ways to win.

Order of Finish:
1)      Chicago Blackhawks
2)      Detroit Red Wings
3)      Nashville Predators
4)      Columbus Blue Jackets
5)      St. Louis Blues


NORTHWEST DIVISION

This isn’t the Avalanche team that boasted future Hall of Famers Ray Bourque, Joe Sakic, Patrick Roy, and Peter Forsberg.  In fact it’s not even a shadow of that.  Matt Duschene is a top line center, but the cast around him are players looking to rebound from poor seasons or injury.  Paul Stasny should improve from last years abomination but don’t look for any production like his father did, even when he was on the Devils, and Peter Muller is finally healthy so he should be able to contribute to the offense.  The player I really like is Gabriel Landeskog.  The number two overall pick will be on the second line and should immediately make an impact.  Erik Johnson is a good young defenseman, but the Avs will miss the loss of John-Michael Liles because besides Johnson the rest of the defense is mediocre at best.  This won’t make life easy for newly acquired Semyon Varlamov who Colorado gave up a ton to pry away from the Capitals.

The Canucks are looking to rebound from last season’s Stanley Cup loss to the Bruins, and they are in prime form to do so.  The Sedin brothers will continue to punish opposing goalies despite Ryan Kesler missing the beginning of the season after recovering from surgery.  Alex Burrows will be counted on to pick up some of the slack. The Canucks offense is full of players who pick each other up and find the back of the net.  The addition of Marco Sturm might seem trivial, but I like it.  He’s a seasoned veteran with plenty of post season experience.  Alex Edler will be counted on to work the power play now that Christian Erhoff signed with the Sabres.  Otherwise the Canucks defense is deep and physical and will only aid Roberto Luongo, who is still one of the best goalies in the NHL. (SIDEBAR:  To the fans.  If your team loses, DON’T RIOT!  It’s embarrassing for you, your team, and your city.  Have some class and drown your sorrows at the bottom of a bottle like the rest of us.)

Calgary is going through changes and I don’t think it’s for the best.  Jerome Iginla is one of the best goal scorers in the league but outside of Alex Tangay he doesn’t have a lot of help around him.  Ollie Jokinen still has some gas in the tank but it’s not enough for a first line center.  Mikael Backlund is a guy the Flames offense is going to have to rely on for some success.  Defensively I really don’t like them.  The trade of Robyn Regehr, while it may have made the rest of the division happy, is going to hurt the Flames as they have no one to replace his big physical defensive presence.  This is going to put a ton of pressure on Jay Bouwmeester to take his place.  Miikka Kiprusoff is still one of the best goalies around but there’s no strong backup to give him a day off.  Flames fans can’t expect Miikka to play 71 games again this season.  One saving grace they do have is they are in one of the weakest divisions in the league.

Fans in Edmonton are excited and they have reason to be.  After two consecutive seasons where the Oilers finished dead last, garnering them the first overall pick two years in a row.  The results were forwards Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.  During the preseason the rookie Nugent-Hopkins centered a line with Hall and Jordan Eberle and they dazzled the preseason crowds, to the point where at 18-years-old Nugent-Hopkins made the roster out of camp.  The addition of Ryan Smyth adds a needed veteran presence and if Alex Hemsky actually lives up to the potential that’s been talked about for the past five years, the Oilers will have a good offense that should only improve for years to come.  Unfortunately that’s where it ends.  The defense is terrible.  Ryan Whitney is a good offensive defenseman (and also prime trade target this season), but the remainder of the group is below average.  If there’s one thing about the Oilers defense that you like it’s that they make up their lack of ability with physical presence.  Theo Peckham, Andy Sutton, Cam Barker, along with forwards Ben Eager and Darcy Hordichuk give the Oilers the toughest team in the division.  The goaltending is also a mess.  The Oilers are high on Devan Dubnyk but he does nothing for me.  He’ll split time with Nikoli Khabibuln, who was an abomination last season.  The Oilers are on the right track but have too many questions to be taken seriously.

The Wild added two big offensive pieces in the offseason in Dany (2-hands on the steering wheel) Heatly and Devin Setoguchi, which should improve an offense that ranked 29th in goals scored last season.  Mikko Koivu is still a frontline center and I like Marc-Pierre Bourchard.  After two injury-filled seasons he’s due for a comeback season,.  Darrol Powe was an excellent signing and will help the penalty killing unit.  Defensively the Wild will miss Brent Burns.  Greg Zanon is a good physical defenseman but no one else on the blue line is all that impressive.  Niklas Backstrom is a good goalie but needs to rebound from a subpar year for the Wild to be competitive.

Order of Finish:
1)      Vancouver Canucks
2)      Calgary Flames
3)      Edmonton Oilers
4)      Minnesota Wild
5)      Colorado Avalanche

PACIFIC DIVISION

There were plenty of changes this offseason in Phoenix, which leaves a lot of questions.  Although veteran Damon Lankow missed the entire season last year with injuries it didn’t sway the Coyotes for trading for him from the Flames.  Lankow will center the Coyotes first line along with Ray Whitney and Shane Doan.  This could be the oldest line in the league.  The Coyotes will miss Kyle Turris who is currently holding out (hey Kyle, you need to be really good in order to hold out), so the second line is a younger line with a ton of potential.  Martin Hanzal, Lauri Korpitoski, and Radim Vrbata have a lot of potential and should lead the Coyotes in scoring.  Keith Yandle will man the point during the power play, and overall the defense isn’t spectacular but its serviceable.  The biggest concern I see in Phoenix is goaltending.  After trading Ilya Bryzgalov to Philadelphia the Coyotes signed Mike Smith.  Smith has struggled everywhere he’s played so my hopes aren’t high this will change in Phoenix.

The Ducks have the best line in the Western Conference.  Corey Perry, Bobby Ryan and Ryan Getzlaf are going to score a lot of points for the Ducks and it’s going to get them a lot of wins.  Perry, who won the Hart and Rocket Richard Trophies last season is capable of having a better season then his last.  Teemu Selanne is coming back for his final season and is still can notch 80 points.  I’m interested to see what Andrew Cogliano can do with the Ducks.  Highly touted with the Oilers he never really reached his potential but also never really had the cast around him that he will have in Anaheim.  On defense I’m a big fan of both Lubomir Visnovsky and Toni Lydman (who will miss the first few games of the season due to injury).  Behind them are good defenseman who will make Jonas Hiller’s job a lot easier, should he be able to rebound from his bout with vertigo last season.

The Kings off-season moves really added depth to an already deep hockey club.  In Mike Richards they get a center that can score, play the physical game and is also defensive.  The Kings gave up a lot for him, losing top prospect Brayden Schenn, but Richards is a great fit in Los Angeles.  Simon Gagne is a pure goal scorer, and providing he able to stay healthy (he has a history of concussions in both Philadelphia and Tampa), he will flourish.  Add those two with the likes of Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams, and Jarret Stoll, the Kings are an offensive force.  It was also encouraging that Dustin Penner came into camp in shape so hopefully he can return to the form back when he was in Anaheim.  Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson lead a defense that is deep on all three pairings.  Jon Quick has proven to be a good goalie, but I’m not terribly high on him.

San Jose is an interesting case.  On paper they have weapons like Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Dany Heatley (who has since departed and replaced by Martin Havlat), but they tend to underachieve.  The Pacific Division is among the best in the NHL so should the Sharks start slow they will be in trouble.  In getting rid for Heatley, the Sharks acquired All-Star defenseman Brent Burns.  He’ll give the Sharks a big lift on defense to help Dan Boyle.  There’s a big question at the goaltender position.  Antti Niemi is currently out with a cyst and Antero Niittymaki is also hurt meaning if Niemi cannot go to start the season the reigns will be turned over to Thomas Griess.  There can’t be much confidence there.

I don’t have high hopes for the Stars this season.  After losing Brad Richards to free agency they made no moves to attempt to replace his offense (unless you count Michael Ryder, but he and Richards aren’t in the same league).  This coming from a team that already struggled with scoring goals.  Mike Ribero is nice but he’s not a number one center.  Brendan Morrow is a good forward and probably their best offensive player.  Dallas does have some nice pieces on defense.  Alex Goligoski has a ton of potential registering 13 points in 20 games last season.  I think the wild card on defense might be Sheldon Souray.  Souray spent the entire season with Oklahoma City of the AHL last season and has something to prove.  If Souray is in shape he provides good defense, a physical game, and one of the hardest slap shots in the league.  Kari Lehtonen is the goalie and the Stars season will live and die on his play.  He’s shown he can stop the tough shot but can he be consistent?

Order of Finish:
1)      Los Angeles Kings
2)      Anaheim Ducks
3)      San Jose Sharks
4)      Phoenix Coyotes
5)      Dallas Stars


Conference Standings (X- Playoffs, Y- Division Winners):
1)       Y - Chicago Blackhawks
2)       Y - Vancouver Canucks
3)       Y - Los Angeles Kings
4)       X – Detroit Red Wings
5)       X – Anaheim Ducks
6)       X – Nashville Predators
7)       X – San Jose Sharks
8)       X – Calgary Flames
9)       Columbus Blue Jackets
10)   Edmonton Oilers
11)   Minnesota Wild
12)   Phoenix Coyotes
13)   Colorado Avalanche
14)   St. Louis Blues
15)   Dallas Stars

Put it in the books.  What are your thoughts?  Where do you think your favorite team will finish this season?  Email me at shatmeself@yahoo.com and we can tell each other how we are wrong.  Stay tuned for the third and final part of my NHL Preview where I look at the playoffs and other season predictions.


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